Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments : adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion. While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decisionmaking preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and outreach activities, which can be costly. Our results are especially important and useful given the huge number of camping trips that occur each year in the United States and Canada

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments : adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion. While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decisionmaking preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and outreach activities, which can be costly. Our results are especially important and useful given the huge number of camping trips that occur each year in the United States and Canada

Adjunctive quetiapine for serotonin reuptake inhibitor-resistant obsessive-compulsive disorder: A meta-analysis of randomised controlled treatment trials

Small studies have shown positive effects from adding a variety of antipsychotic agents in patients with obsessive–compulsive disorder who are unresponsive to treatment with serotonin reuptake inhibitors. The evidence, however, is contradictory. This paper reports a meta-analysis of existing double-blind randomized placebo-controlled studies looking at the addition of the second-generation antipsychotic quetiapine in such cases. Three studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Altogether 102 individuals were subjected to analysis using Review Manager (4.2.7). The results showed evidence of efficacy for adjunctive quetiapine (< 400 mg/day) on the primary efficacy criterion, measured as changes from baseline in total Yale–Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale scores (P = 0.008), the clinical significance of which was limited by between-study heterogeneity. The mechanism underlying the effect may involve serotonin and/or dopamine neurotransmission

Association between the dopamine D-2 receptor TaqI A2 allele and low activity COMT allele with obsessive-compulsive disorder in males

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence suggests the involvement of the dopamine system in the pathophysiology of obsessive-compulsive disorder. METHOD: The relationship of the dopamine D(2) receptor (DRD2) TaqI A, and catechol-O-methyl-transferase (COMT) NlaIII High/Low activity polymorphism to obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) was examined in a sample of 150 patients and 150 controls. RESULTS: OCD patients did not show significant differences in genotype distribution and allele frequency for polymorphisms investigated relative to controls. However, when the sample was stratified by gender, there was a trend to a significant predominance of the DRD2 A2A2 genotype (p=0.049), and a higher frequency of the DRD2 A2 allele (p=0.020) and low-activity COMT allele (p=0.035) in male OCD patients compared to male controls. In addition, we observed an association of the DRD2 A2A2 genotype in patients with an early onset of disease ( <or=15 years) (p=0.033). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings replicate previous reports and provide support for a potential role of the COMT and DRD2 locus in subgroup of male, early onset patients with OC

Enhancement and suppression of tunneling by controlling symmetries of a potential barrier

We present a class of 2D systems which shows a counterintuitive property that contradicts a semi classical intuition: A 2D quantum particle "prefers" tunneling through a barrier rather than traveling above it. Viewing the one particle 2D system as the system of two 1D particles, it is demonstrated that this effect occurs due to a specific symmetry of the barrier that forces excitations of the interparticle degree of freedom that, in turn, leads to the appearance of an effective potential barrier even though there is no "real" barrier. This phenomenon cannot exist in 1D.Comment: 10 pages and 7 figure

Conceptual inconsistencies in finite-dimensional quantum and classical mechanics

Utilizing operational dynamic modeling [Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 190403 (2012); arXiv:1105.4014], we demonstrate that any finite-dimensional representation of quantum and classical dynamics violates the Ehrenfest theorems. Other peculiarities are also revealed, including the nonexistence of the free particle and ambiguity in defining potential forces. Non-Hermitian mechanics is shown to have the same problems. This work compromises a popular belief that finite-dimensional mechanics is a straightforward discretization of the corresponding infinite-dimensional formulation.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Driven Imposters: Controlling Expectations in Many-Body Systems

We present a framework to control and track the observables of a general solid state system driven by an incident laser field. The main result is a non-linear equation of motion for tracking an observable, together with a constraint on the size of expectations which may be reproduced via tracking. Among other applications, this model provides a potential route to the design of laser fields which cause photo-induced superconductivity in materials above their critical temperature. As a first test, the strategy is used to make the expectation value of the current conform to an arbitrary function under a range of model parameters. Additionally, using two reference spectra for materials in the conducting and insulating regimes respectively, the tracking algorithm is used to make each material mimic the optical spectrum of the other.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, will be accompanied by an extended submissio